JonRon Model

Pitch Mix Matchups

Best batter vs pitcher pitch-type edges. Green = favorable for HR. The Δ box beside each window metric filters for a decline in a pitcher’s mix from his season avg. Suggested: HR/BBI Δ +4, Brl/BBI Δ +5, Avg EV Δ +1.5, Avg Air Dist Δ +20 — each paired with BBI ≥ 8, without which a three-start window is mostly noise.

0 matchups
Pitch window
Batter window
≥%
≥
≥
≥
≥
≥
≥
≥
≥%
≥%
≥%
≥%
≥
≥%
≥%
≥
FindHeat is this row’s percentile among tonight’s 0 pitch-matchups. V = pitch worse than league · T = pitch trending worse · B = this bat punishes this pitch.
Loading pitch mix data...

Green = above league avg (favorable for HR). Red = below avg. Click any row for detailed matchup. Pitcher columns = what pitcher allows. Batter columns = batter performance vs that pitch type. Filters use ≥ (greater than or equal). Barrel/FB inputs are in percentage (e.g. "5" = 5%). PITCH BY WINDOW describes the pitch, not the matchup, so it repeats across every hitter facing that arm from the same side. Avg Air Dist counts fly balls and line drives only — averaged over every ball in play it measures ground-ball rate rather than power. A blank cell means no sample, never zero.