Rafael DeversSF · vs Kohl Drake (LHP) · Oracle Park
23.0%
MODEL HR
BOOK+537FAIR+334EDGE▲ +7.3pp
TOP FACTORS
Devers Season HR vs LHP
4TOP 16% MLB
2026 season · vs LHP split
Drake Barrel% Allowed vs LHB
20.0TOP 5% HR-PRONE
2026 season · vs LHB split
Home run probabilities
Compare the JonRon model against sportsbook prices and choose top HR matchups.
Kyle SchwarberPHI · vs Reid Detmers (LHP) · Angel Stadium
22.3%
MODEL HR
BOOK+257FAIR+348EDGE▼ -5.7pp
TOP FACTORS
Schwarber Season HR vs LHP
13TOP 1% MLB
2026 season · vs LHP split
Schwarber xwOBA vs LHP
.507TOP 5% MLB
2026 season · vs LHP split
Jo AdellCLE · vs Michael Wacha (RHP) · Progressive Field
22.0%
MODEL HR
BOOK+410FAIR+354EDGE▲ +2.4pp
TOP FACTORS
Adell Season HR vs RHP
8TOP 24% MLB
2026 season · vs RHP split
Wacha HR/9 Allowed vs RHB
1.83TOP 26% HR-PRONE
2026 season · vs RHB split
Pete AlonsoBAL · vs Jacob Lopez (LHP) · Sutter Health Park
19.4%
MODEL HR
BOOK+225FAIR+416EDGE▼ -11.4pp
TOP FACTORS
Alonso Avg Exit Velo vs LHP
94.7TOP 3% MLB
2026 season · vs LHP split
Lopez Fly Ball% Allowed vs RHB
35.6TOP 17% HR-PRONE
2026 season · vs RHB split
Matt OlsonATL · vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) · Truist Park
16.3%
MODEL HR
BOOK+238FAIR+513EDGE▼ -13.3pp
TOP FACTORS
Olson Season HR vs RHP
25TOP 1% MLB
2026 season · vs RHP split
Sugano Barrel% Allowed vs LHB
14.3TOP 12% HR-PRONE
2026 season · vs LHB split
LAST NIGHT–Rice–Alvarez–Ohtani–Contreras–WalkerLast night 0/5 · August 22/135
| Batter | vs Pitcher | HR% | Fair | Book | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rafael DeversSF | K. Drake (L) | 23.0 | +334 | +537 | ▲ +7.3pp | |
 Kyle SchwarberPHI | R. Detmers (L) | 22.3 | +348 | +257 | ▼ -5.7pp | |
 Jo AdellCLE | M. Wacha (R) | 22.0 | +354 | +410 | ▲ +2.4pp | |
 Pete AlonsoBAL | J. Lopez (L) | 19.4 | +416 | +225 | ▼ -11.4pp | |
 Matt OlsonATL | T. Sugano (R) | 16.3 | +513 | +238 | ▼ -13.3pp | |
| Drake BaldwinATL | T. Sugano (R) | 16.3 | +515 | +320 | ▼ -7.5pp | |
| Bryce EldridgeSF | K. Drake (L) | 16.1 | +519 | +476 | ▼ -1.2pp | |
 Heriberto HernándezMIA | J. Kent (L) | 16.1 | +520 | +350 | ▼ -6.1pp | |
 Munetaka MurakamiCWS | D. Kremer (R) | 16.1 | +520 | +291 | ▼ -9.4pp | |
| Coby MayoBAL | J. Lopez (L) | 16.1 | +522 | +320 | ▼ -7.7pp | |
 Shohei OhtaniLAD | D. Anderson (R) | 16.1 | +522 | +315 | ▼ -8.0pp | |
 Jake BauersMIL | C. Bradford (L) | 16.1 | +522 | +350 | ▼ -6.2pp | |
| Miguel VargasCWS | D. Kremer (R) | 16.1 | +523 | +400 | ▼ -3.9pp | |
 Alec BurlesonSTL | J. Jones (R) | 16.0 | +526 | +550 | ▲ +0.6pp | |
 Pete Crow-armstrongCHC | R. Lowder (R) | 16.0 | +526 | -- | -- | |
 Corbin CarrollAZ | B. Tidwell (R) | 16.0 | +527 | +411 | ▼ -3.6pp | |
| Colson MontgomeryCWS | D. Kremer (R) | 15.9 | +528 | +370 | ▼ -5.3pp | |
 Yordan AlvarezHOU | C. Scott (R) | 15.9 | +529 | +285 | ▼ -10.1pp | |
| William ContrerasMIL | C. Bradford (L) | 15.9 | +529 | +425 | ▼ -3.2pp | |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL | T. Sugano (R) | 15.8 | +531 | +350 | ▼ -6.4pp | |
 Corey SeagerTEX | L. Henderson (R) | 15.8 | +531 | +335 | ▼ -7.2pp | |
 Fernando Tatis Jr.SD | S. Mcclanahan (L) | 15.8 | +532 | +410 | ▼ -3.8pp | |
 Junior CamineroTB | C. Mize (R) | 15.8 | +533 | +280 | ▼ -10.5pp | |
| Bryce HarperPHI | R. Detmers (L) | 15.8 | +535 | +475 | ▼ -1.6pp | |
 Ben RiceNYY | P. Sandoval (L) | 15.7 | +535 | +432 | ▼ -3.1pp |